TrendForce's latest report predicts that the global mobile phone market will be expected to recover to the pre-pandemic level in 2022, and the annual production is estimated to reach 1.386 billion units, with an annual growth rate of 3.8%.

In addition to the impact of the pandemic on mobile phone sales in 2020, the total global sales in recent years fell between 1.3 billion and 1.5 billion. From the perspective of 4G mobile phones, it was about 1.4 billion, 1 billion, 800 million, 650 million and 500 million, and from the perspective of 5G mobile phones, it was about 100 million, 200 million, 500 million, 800 million and 900 million.

LTCC is one of the components used on the mobile phone. In short, LTCC solves the problem of smaller and smaller space but more and more components. Of course, it is not only used in mobile phones, but also in RF front-end components such as filters, multiplexers, high frequency inductors, and antennas for wireless communications as we mentioned earlier. The LTCC industry has been dominated by Japanese manufacturers for many years, holding about 50% of the global market share. The main manufacturers include Murata, TDK and Kyocera. The other major international manufacturers include CTS from the United States, Bosch from Germany and C-MAC from the United Kingdom. The main manufacturers in mainland China are Jiali, Fenghua, Sunluo, Maejie and 214, while the Taiwanese manufacturers are GEM, Huaxinke and Qilisin (acquired by Guoju).

LTCC low temperature co-firing ceramic elements can be sintered to form an integrated ceramic element through a parallel printing and coating process. Also because the material of ceramic and silicon is quite close, suitable for connecting with IC chip, due to more current resistance, high temperature resistance, small size, especially suitable for application in high frequency, short wave 5G environment, as well as pay attention to thin and short portable electronic products.

First take a look at the demand side, a 4G mobile phone probably uses 4~5 LTCC, and a 5G mobile phone probably uses 15 LTCC, in terms of volume, this rough estimate is three times the previous, you can watch the changes from the above manufacturer monthly revenue.

Using simple math to figure out how many LTCC's will be used between 2019 and 2023, They are 6.45 billion (14e*4.5 +0.1e*15) in 2019, 7.5 billion (10e*4.5 +2e*15) in 2020, 11.1 billion (8e*4.5 +5e*15) in 2021, 14.925 billion (6.5e*4.5 +8e*15) in 2022, In 2023, 15.75 billion (5e*4.5 +9e*15), its CAGR compound growth rate is 19.5%, the growth is very high, of course, the basic assumption of all this is based on the continued rise of 5G mobile phone penetration will have such a high growth force. (The above quantity does not include the growth force of 4G filter upgraded from 1~2 LTCCto 3~4 5G filter, and 4G multiplexer upgraded from 1 to 5~8 5G)

Now that we've looked at demand, let's look at supply. Huaxinke, a Taiwanese manufacturer, said that the global LTCC demand for 2Q20 was only about 3.75 billion, and the supply was about 4 billion. In 3Q20, the demand jumped to 5.2 billion, and the supply was only increased by 500 million to 4.5 billion. By 4Q20, the quarterly global LTCC demand had reached 6 billion, but the production capacity was only 5 billion. The supply gap has grown to a billion nuts a season.

Due to the shortage of product supply and demand since 3Q20, major factories have launched production expansion plans, and the supply has started in succession. However, in addition to the driving force driven by 5G, automotive is also an industry that has been turning over since 2020.

On November 26, the third Electronic Ceramics Industry Summit Forum will be held in Kunshan, Jiangsu province. The upstream and downstream of LTCC industry gathered in Kunshan, Jiangsu Province. Well-known enterprises such as Huawei, KALI, Fenghua High-tech, Ordnance 214 Institute, China Electric Power 43 Institute, Sanhuan Group, Hengdian DongMagnetics, University of Electronic Science and Technology, Shenzhen Advanced Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Heraeus, Zhejiang Xinna, Shanghai Jingcai, Huaseng Electronics and so on will attend the meeting.